David Kenner in Foreign Policy.
When it comes to sanctions, there is also likely more latitude to Turkey's
position than it lets on. By taking a firm line now, Ankara may hope to prevent
a resolution on sanctions from coming to the floor of the U.N. Security
Council. However, if the United States can avoid vetoes from Russia and China,
few expect Turkey to stand in the way. "All options for Turkey are undesirable"
on Iran, noted Soli Ozel, a professor at Istanbul's Bilgi University and a
frequent commentator. "But if push comes to shove, Turkey will side with its
allies."
This has less to do with principle than Turkey's post-Republic orientation
toward the West. Breaking with the United States and Europe over such a crucial
issue would represent a fundamental split with the Western alliance, a step few
think Turkey is willing to take. In this sense, Turkey appears less as an
assertive, independent actor in the Middle East and more as a developing power
caught between two stronger poles.