From CNBC.
Attempts to rescue Greece are simply making matters worse and the quicker the
crisis comes, the better for the world. This is what John Taylor, the founder
of FX Concepts, one of the largest currency hedge funds in the world, wrote in
a recent article.
"If the political actors in this tragedy-comedy play their roles well -- staving
off collapse -- our suffering will be worse," Taylor wrote.
He is shorting the euro and sees the single currency hitting $1.20; he also
believes longer term the euro will collapse - and the sooner the better.
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From Business Insider.
Fitch has downgraded Greek debt to triple-B-minus from triple-B-plus.
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Times report.
Greece was pushed closer to the edge by a panicky bond market yesterday, which
ramped up the cost of its borrowing to new highs. A hammering of bond prices by
investors took the yield on short-term Greek debt as high as 8 per cent at one
point, prompting speculation that a rescue might be imminent.
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Guardian article by Adrian Pabst.
If Greece collapses and drags down the rest of the eurozone, the social costs
and the political fallout will threaten the entire European edifice. That would
cut short the nascent recovery and plunge the EU into a double-dip recession.
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Guardian report.
The Greek debt crisis deepened today, despite reassurances from European Union
officials that the country was not on the brink of default.
Financial markets ignored European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's
comments that "a default is not an issue for Greece," and continued their bond
sell-off for a third day.
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Wolfgang Münchau in the Financial Times.
Under these circumstances there may come a point when the Greek government
concludes that default is the financially superior option, especially since 70
per cent of Greek debt is held by foreigners. If they are smart, they will take
the EU money and then default. In any case, default is still the true backstop,
not the emergency loan. Bond market investors should be well aware of that.
[...]
In the meantime, we are still asking the same uncomfortable questions as we did
last week. Is the Greek austerity plan realistic? Will Greece be able to pull
through? What happens if Portugal gets into difficulty? What about Spain? What
about Italy? Is there an agenda to deal with current account imbalances? Will
Germany ever accept any responsibility for the cohesion of the eurozone, other
than expecting others to converge with Germany? All the questions are still out
there, unanswered.
I must admit that the late-night meetings, the dramatic announcement of an
agreement, and the press conferences by European leaders are highly effective
tools to impress the outside world. Ms Merkel in particular is a very
persuasive politician. But the politics of smoke and mirrors cannot fool all
the people all of the time. This will not end well.
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BBC report.
Europe's finance ministers have agreed how to help Greece in its battle to
control its finances.
After a meeting in Brussels, they revealed few details, except that they had
ruled out any loan guarantees.
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Gavin Hewitt on the BBC News site.
However, the believers out there are few. Giant hedge funds have placed their
bets; the euro will drop further. In their view the euro's inherent weaknesses
are not being addressed. Most senior European officials believe some kind of
bail-out will be needed.
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Kevin Featherstone on the Guardian's Cif.
This week Greece and the eurozone entered an unknown time zone, of uncertainty
and failure. The international financial markets are increasingly convinced
that Greece will default on its debt. In the City, analysts estimate Greece
will need aid of about €70bn (£60.6bn) this year, €60bn next year and €56bn in
2012. In "hedge fund" offices, the task for the Greek government appears
overwhelming: its no longer if, but when it will default. But no one knows
whether a default by Greece would require its exit from the eurozone.
[...]
This is a crisis invented in Athens, but greatly exacerbated by the hawkish
stance adopted in Berlin. Chancellor Merkel's strategy has been perplexing. She
seems intent on making the Greeks recognise they are a failed state and act to
change it from top to bottom, preferably by tomorrow. But Germany has stumbled
to determine how far it wants to push Greece. This weekend it appears that
Merkel has accepted that the loan deal must be settled at long last. She ought
to have paid much closer attention to the calibration of the pain threshold in
Greece: the point beyond which a political crisis is provoked. This is an
outcome that is in no one's interest at present.
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Telegraph report.
Theodoros Pangalos, deputy prime minister, said Germany had no right to
reproach Greece for anything after it devastated the country under the Nazi
occupation, which left 300,000 dead. "They took away the gold that was in the
Bank of Greece, and they never gave it back. They shouldn't complain so much
about stealing and not being very specific about economic dealings," he told
the BBC.
Twisting the knife further, he said the current crop of EU leaders were of
"very poor quality" and had botched this month's crisis summit in
Brussels. "The people who are managing the fortunes of Europe were not up to
the task," he said.
One banker said the situation was surreal. "How can they call the Germans
incompetent Nazis and still expect a bail-out?"
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Guardian report.
Police fired teargas in clashes with demonstrators in central Athens today
after more than 30,000 people took to the streets to protest against austerity
measures aimed at reducing Greece public debt.
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Independent report.
Britain's public finances are in a worse position than those of Greece,
according to the latest figures on government borrowing. The Office for
National Statistics said yesterday that January alone saw a net shortfall of
£4.3bn, far worse than City forecasts and in a month which has always
previously shown a healthy surplus. It puts the UK on track for a deficit of
£180bn this year, or 12.8 per cent of GDP, economists said, shading the Greek
figure, hitherto the worst in the European Union, of 12.7 per cent. In the
pre-Budget report the Chancellor forecast a deficit of £178bn for the current
year. Warnings that the UK could face a Greek-style crisis of confidence have
been building for some weeks, and yesterday saw a sell-off of sterling and
British government securities, or gilts, on the disappointing news.
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Reuters report.
Greek opposition lawmakers said on Thursday that Germans should pay reparations
for their World War Two occupation of Greece before criticising the country
over its yawning fiscal deficits.
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Financial Times article by Otmar Issing.
Once Greece was helped, the dam would be broken. A bail-out for the country
that broke the rules would make it impossible to deny aid to others.
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Speculation by Gregory White in Business Insider.
The Greek Prime Minister is set to visit Russia next week in the middle of the
biggest crisis in the country's recent history.
He will sit down to economic talks with his Russian counterpart Vladamir Putin
and it has to be suspected that the debt crisis may be up for discussion.
They'll also be discussing military and energy policy.
Could the Greek PM be trying to strike a bargain with Putin to save his
troubled country?
If so, this seems like a monster blow to the EU, and posibly to NATO.
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Vincent Fernando in Business Insider.
Some banks are exposed to the risk of a sovereign debt crisis directly through
bond investments, such as by owning, say, Greek bonds.
Yet even banks without any direct exposure to troubled government bonds could
be slammed by a sovereign crisis as well.
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