Telegraph report.
There is now more than a one-in-five chance of another asset price bubble
implosion costing the world more than £1 trillion, and similar odds of a
full-scale sovereign fiscal crisis, a key report warned.
Investors must steel themselves for the possibility of a second leg to the
financial crisis, and should be equally prepared for a fiscal crisis, in which
a major economy faces either default or a "sudden stop" in financing themselves
on capital markets, according to the World Economic Forum.
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Anatole Kaletsky in the Times.
If nothing is done to change the US healthcare system, it can be stated with
mathematical certainty that the US Government and many leading US companies
will be driven into bankruptcy, a fate that befell General Motors and Chrysler
largely because of their inability to meet retired workers' contractually
guaranteed medical costs.
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Telegraph report.
Theodoros Pangalos, deputy prime minister, said Germany had no right to
reproach Greece for anything after it devastated the country under the Nazi
occupation, which left 300,000 dead. "They took away the gold that was in the
Bank of Greece, and they never gave it back. They shouldn't complain so much
about stealing and not being very specific about economic dealings," he told
the BBC.
Twisting the knife further, he said the current crop of EU leaders were of
"very poor quality" and had botched this month's crisis summit in
Brussels. "The people who are managing the fortunes of Europe were not up to
the task," he said.
One banker said the situation was surreal. "How can they call the Germans
incompetent Nazis and still expect a bail-out?"
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Sean O'Grady in the Independent.
Is Britain about to suffer a "Black Swan" event? This, if you follow trendy
financial ideas, is the one that shocks observers who assumed such a thing
could never happen, just as the first Western visitors to Australia to see a
black swan were similarly startled. The idea was popularised by a former
financial trader, Nassim Taleb, whose The Black Swan became a bestseller soon
after its publication in 2007, at a time when the unthinkable was happening to
the big banks and markets every day, and black swans were biting us with
painful frequency.
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Independent report.
Britain's public finances are in a worse position than those of Greece,
according to the latest figures on government borrowing. The Office for
National Statistics said yesterday that January alone saw a net shortfall of
£4.3bn, far worse than City forecasts and in a month which has always
previously shown a healthy surplus. It puts the UK on track for a deficit of
£180bn this year, or 12.8 per cent of GDP, economists said, shading the Greek
figure, hitherto the worst in the European Union, of 12.7 per cent. In the
pre-Budget report the Chancellor forecast a deficit of £178bn for the current
year. Warnings that the UK could face a Greek-style crisis of confidence have
been building for some weeks, and yesterday saw a sell-off of sterling and
British government securities, or gilts, on the disappointing news.
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Reuters report.
Greek opposition lawmakers said on Thursday that Germans should pay reparations
for their World War Two occupation of Greece before criticising the country
over its yawning fiscal deficits.
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Financial Times article by Otmar Issing.
Once Greece was helped, the dam would be broken. A bail-out for the country
that broke the rules would make it impossible to deny aid to others.
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Speculation by Gregory White in Business Insider.
The Greek Prime Minister is set to visit Russia next week in the middle of the
biggest crisis in the country's recent history.
He will sit down to economic talks with his Russian counterpart Vladamir Putin
and it has to be suspected that the debt crisis may be up for discussion.
They'll also be discussing military and energy policy.
Could the Greek PM be trying to strike a bargain with Putin to save his
troubled country?
If so, this seems like a monster blow to the EU, and posibly to NATO.
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Vincent Fernando in Business Insider.
Some banks are exposed to the risk of a sovereign debt crisis directly through
bond investments, such as by owning, say, Greek bonds.
Yet even banks without any direct exposure to troubled government bonds could
be slammed by a sovereign crisis as well.
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Niall Ferguson in the Financial Times.
Yet even a casual look at the fiscal position of the federal government (not to
mention the states) makes a nonsense of the phrase "safe haven". US government
debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941.
Even according to the White House's new budget projections, the gross federal
debt will exceed 100 per cent of GDP in just two years' time. This year, like
last year, the federal deficit will be around 10 per cent of GDP. The long-run
projections of the Congressional Budget Office suggest that the US will never
again run a balanced budget. That's right, never.
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Guardian report.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, mounted stiff resistance tonight to any
swift bailout of Greece, as a rift opened up between European capitals over how
best to tackle the risks posed to the euro.
Despite a show of Franco-German unity on the crisis and the first statement
from EU leaders pledging to safeguard the currency's stability, hopes on the
markets of a German-led rescue plan to shore up Greece's critical public
finances were dashed by Merkel, who repeatedly emphasised that Athens would
need to put its own house in order and brushed aside all questions of financial support.
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Financial Times report.
Greece's budgetary and economic policies will be subjected to an unprecedented
degree of surveillance by European Union authorities as the price of a promise
of support agreed on Thursday by Germany and other EU governments.
Pensions and healthcare policies, the public administration, labour and product
markets, the use of EU structural funds, financial sector supervision and
official statistics will all be rigorously monitored by the European Commission
to ensure that Greece is not let off the hook.
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Report on CNBC.
The governments of every developed economy will eventually default on their
sovereign debts, including the US, the UK and Western Europe, Marc Faber,
editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, told CNBC.
"In the developed world we have huge debt to GDP, in terms of government debt
to GDP and unfunded liabilities that will come due," Faber said in a live
interview via telephone. "These unfunded liabilities are so huge that
eventually these governments will all have to print money before they default."
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Independent report.
European Union President Herman Van Rompuy, speaking at a summit of 27 EU
leaders in Brussels, gave no firm offer of financial aid to Greece, and
insisted that Greece hadn't asked for any.
"Euro area members will take determined and coordinated action if needed to
safeguard stability in the euro zone as a whole," he told reporters, reading
out a statement agreed by all euro members.
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Guardian report.
Public sector workers across Greece have begun a nationwide one-day strike in
protest at the austerity measures being implemented to try to address the
country's financial crisis.
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Guardian article by Kenneth Rogoff.
Even as the European Union and the International Monetary Fund lay the
groundwork for a giant first-round bailout, debate is swirling about whether
Greece can avoid sovereign default.
...
There is an old joke about two men who are trapped by a lion in the jungle
after a plane crash. When the first of them starts putting on his sneakers, the
other asks why. The first answers: "I am getting ready to make a run for it."
But you cannot outrun a lion, says the other man, to which the first replies:
"I don't have to outrun the lion. I just have to outrun you."
Greece has yet to put on its sneakers, while other troubled countries, such as
Ireland, race ahead with massive fiscal adjustments. Greece's new socialist
government is hampered by campaign promises that suggested the money was there
to solve the problems, when in fact things turned out to be far worse than
anyone imagined.
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